WPC's Short Range Public Discussion (2024)

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WPC's Short Range Public Discussion (3)

Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 0802Z Jul 06, 2024)

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Short Range Forecast DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD401 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 - 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024...Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West, with heat persisting inthe Eastern U.S.......Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall possible for portions ofthe Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, then theCentral/Southern Plains on Sunday......Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexicotoday and threaten the western Gulf Coast of the U.S. beginning onSunday......Critical Fire Weather possible over portions of the Upper Great Basinand Four Corners Regions this weekend...An amplified upper-level pattern over the CONUS will support recordbreaking heat in the West, severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfallover the Central U.S., and some more heat risk in theMid-Atlantic/Southeast this weekend. A staunch upper ridge continues topromote an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave across theWest. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or brokenthis weekend with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down theWest Coast and portions of the Great Basin. These conditions will beextremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. Themulti-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures willcause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling andhydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are ineffect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in theMid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values will approach orexceed 110 degrees at times. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New Yorkdown the East Coast to the Alabama coast. The intense heat paired with drywindy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions ofsouthern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday.Elsewhere, an upper-level trough stationed over the Central U.S. willamplify and dig into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the surface, apair of slow moving low pressure systems will focus areas of showers andthunderstorms across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The StormPrediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstormsacross parts of the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated largehail and severe wind gusts are expected from the Southern High Plains intothe Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy propagating atop a moist, unstableenvironment and quasi-stationary front at the surface will supportconvection and locally heavy rainfall from central Texas through theCentral Gulf Coast today. There's a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (atleast 15%) over much of Louisiana. Another round of heavy rainfall couldproduce heavy to excessive rainfall for parts of central Oklahoma northernTexas and southern Kansas on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfallis in effect for the aforementioned areas. Some more scattered to isolatedstorms will occur over portions of the Northeast today with potential forisolated Flash Flooding.Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify as it moves through thewestern Gulf of Mexico today. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into aHurricane on Sunday night before making landfall somewhere along the TexasCoast. The exact location of Beryl's landfall is uncertain at this pointbut what's most important is that heavy rainfall, strong winds and stormsurge are expected for much of the state's coastline and portions of thecentral Gulf Coast beginning tonight into Sunday. Please refer to theNational Hurricane Center for the latest Beryl forecast track andintensity.KebedeGraphics available at

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